The 2024 Europe and Eurasia cohort of McCain Global Leaders will travel to Poland for a week of learning, engagement, and community-building this July. This is especially relevant in the current moment, as Poland spearheads the battle against Russian aggression. As a uniquely positioned post-Soviet democracy, Poland provides opportunities to examine overlapping challenges facing Europe and rippling outward into the world, acting as a living laboratory for democracy promotion and rich civil society.
For decades a Soviet satellite, hopes were not high for Poland when the Iron Curtain fell in 1989 – it was slouching towards bankruptcy under the crippling weight of an inefficient agricultural sector and poorly developed infrastructure. Despite these setbacks and against the backdrop of an intensely painful history, the country has become a strategic player on the global stage. Led by shipyard worker Lech Wałęsa, the trade union Solidarność (Solidarity) transformed into a broader social movement that mobilized the Polish population in pursuit of economic reforms and government transparency. Nearly a decade of this work culminated in Poland’s first free elections in June of 1989, in which Solidarność won 99/100 seats in the Senate and 161/460 seats in the Sejm (lower house). The message was clear: Polish people wanted freedom. This outcome sparked a wave of nonviolent revolutions against Communism across the Soviet bloc, eventually leading to the collapse of Soviet socialism. Stepping into its own as a fledgling democracy in a rapidly liberalizing world, Poland quickly positioned itself within the global world order, joining NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004. Additionally, Polish servicemembers fought with coalition forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
No stranger to the yoke of Russian power, from Czarist imperialism to Soviet repression, Poland has consistently backed other nations threatened by Putin’s regime, establishing itself as a facilitator of democracy and unilaterally supporting the Orange Revolution, a Ukrainian movement for free elections in 2004 and 2005. In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, Polish President Lech Kaczyński expressed fear of a domino effect: “Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow, the Baltic States, and later, perhaps, time will come for my country, Poland.” To this end, when the Euromaidan movement developed in Ukraine a few years later, Poland stepped up as “perhaps the most ardent and committed proponent of Ukrainian democracy,” per analysis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Russia’s subsequent annexation of Crimea prompted a Polish foreign policy shift even more towards maintaining Ukrainian independence from Russia.
During the 2020 elections in Belarus, longtime dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s victory was linked to allegations of vote-rigging and voter intimidation. Yet again, Poland was at the forefront of the movement supporting Belarusian opposition candidates who demanded free elections and the release of political prisoners. Given Lukashenko’s explicit fealty to Putin, Poland’s countering stance aligned with decades of resistance against the Kremlin. Furthermore, since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Poland has spearheaded the European response. Consistently critical of a resurgent Russia and the increasingly authoritarian Vladimir Putin, Poland has opened its arms to millions of Ukrainian refugees, called for tougher sanctions on Russia, and served as the primary mechanism for delivering international weapons to Ukrainian troops. By GDP, Poland is NATO’s biggest military spender, a statistic that has caught the eye of multiple actors on the global stage.
In June, the Poles elected Karol Nawrocki, a member of the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS), in a tight presidential race, ending two years of centrist presidential rule. Nawrocki, an amateur boxer and historian who has never held political office, was backed by the Trump administration throughout the election process, especially on his proposed stricter immigration policies, nationalist rhetoric, and desire for more partnership with the U.S. While broadly supportive of Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion, Nawrocki is more critical of Zelenskyy than his predecessors, and does not support Ukrainian accession into NATO. Nawrocki’s victory called into question the stability of the existing Polish coalition government, prompting Prime Minister Donald Tusk to call for a vote of confidence. The coalition ended up surviving that vote a week later, thereby demonstrating the resilience of parliamentary centrism. Nonetheless, Nawrocki’s victory fits in with a broader trend that bucks a decades-old norm: the increasing popularity of right-wing, nationalist political parties across Europe. Research suggests a linkage to younger generations’ disillusionment with establishment politics, a shift particularly notable in Polish society. Young people are voting in record numbers, but largely backing anti-establishment figures in a pivot from traditional centrism. Another push factor in this rightward shift is the desire to address migration, which has been increasing in Poland as it has around the world.
The McCain Global Leaders’ trip to Poland will come at a linchpin moment not just for Poland, but for the world writ large. At the time of this writing, over three years into the war, Russia and Ukraine are navigating the thorny path of prisoner swaps and discussions of next steps towards peace talks. Ukraine has also been attacking Russia with increasing offensive capability, from coordinated drone attacks on Russian airfields to repeated strikes on the Crimea Bridge. As Russian aggression persists and the world continues to meet that challenge, questions arise about collective defense, great power competition, and the future of European unity. Poland is a microcosm of the conflicting emotions around this challenging problem set. Amidst this chaos and uncertainty, the McCain Global Leaders will be able to draw many lessons from Poland’s history, culture, and engagement with the world around them. They will analyze security threats through meetings with organizations like the Foreign Affairs Committee and Warsaw Security Forum, and learn about governance through touring the Sejm. Through it all, the cohort will be reminded of Poland’s history by visiting sites like Auschwitz-Birkenau and the Warsaw Rising Museum.
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