In a new op-ed, “Russia Isn’t ‘Influencing’ Moldova’s Election,” McCain Institute Senior Director of Global Democracy Programs Laura Thornton warns that Russia’s disinformation and financial campaigns in Moldova are more than just “influence operations” but a “multi-vector war” in Moldova. The upcoming parliamentary elections are not just existential for Moldova but have significant consequences for Ukraine and the EU. Given the stakes, the U.S. should be increasing its support for Moldovan democracy but instead has knee-capped efforts to fight against a Russian takeover.
View excerpts from the article below.
Op-Ed: Russia Isn’t ‘Influencing’ Moldova’s Election
Foreign Policy
By Laura Thorton
September 22, 2025
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/22/moldova-election-russian-influence-campaign/
The Republic of Moldova, bordered in most directions by Ukraine, is having a parliamentary election this week, and the stakes are existential. In this election, the competition is not between right or left—but between a democratic, European Moldova and Russia.
The phrase “influence operations” is utterly inaccurate to describe what is happening in Moldova. It implies a gentle thumb on the scale, where malign actors spread disinformation and meddle in political narratives to nudge an electoral outcome in a favorable direction. In Moldova, Russia is engaged in a multi-vector war. It aims not only to thwart Moldova’s trajectory toward European Union membership—approved by a narrow majority in a 2024 referendum—and bring it into Russia’s sphere of influence, but also to use the country as a geographically well-situated base to conduct hybrid attacks within the EU and operations in Ukraine.
While in Moldova on a fact-finding mission with the McCain Institute, German Marshall Fund, and European Council on Foreign Relations, European representatives acknowledged the stakes of the upcoming election. As one EU diplomat said to the delegation, “Our objectives here are to ensure that the elections are free and secure and that Moldova continues on the EU path.” EU representatives described their investments in cyber and election security, provision of strategic advice, crisis management training, technical assistance to Moldovan authorities, funding for independent media outlets and civic watchdogs and deployment of long-term and short-term election monitors. EU states are also helping with open-source intelligence analysis to identify patterns of influence, training in strategic communications to preempt Russian disinformation, and creating hybrid response teams in cooperation with the Moldovan government.
Under Chatham House Rules, a U.S. representative told delegation that the United States has “no dog in this fight.” Yet the implications of this election interference are wide-reaching; in addition to Russia’s ambitions for Moldova as a whole, it is also a laboratory for testing Russian war tactics. A security expert told the delegation that Moldova, with Romania on its western border and approximately 35 percent of Moldovans holding Romanian passports, is a Trojan horse through which Russia can infiltrate the EU. (Romanian law allows citizenship for descendants of people who were Romanian citizens.) In addition, Moldova is an excellent base camp from which to launch hybrid tactics on nearby U.S. interests such as a U.S. military base in Romania. And with a pliant Moldova, Russia can encircle Ukraine from the west as well as enhance and mobilize its troop presence in Moldova’s Transnistria to conduct operations in the Ukrainian city of Odesa, a nearby prized target.
Read the full op-ed HERE.