In February 2025, billions of dollars in U.S. foreign assistance was halted, following an executive order stating, “The United States foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values.” The Associated Press reported that the “‘America First’ moves have raised concerns among some lawmakers and experts about whether the U.S. is ceding global influence to its rivals.” As China increases its competitive investments in the tech sector and threatens the use of military force to take over Taiwan and the South China Sea, a decrease in United States presence in the region could leave our Southeast Asian allies vulnerable to coercion from China.
Soft power, a term originating from the Cold War, refers to a nation’s ability to influence other nations without the use of force. China has been growing its soft power by making strategic investments in technology, like artificial intelligence and chips to rival the United States, and signing security agreements with regional partners. But Southeast Asia in particular is at most risk of increased military and economic intimidation by China in the absence of United States security.
Since the 20th century, China has been attempting to dominate the South China Sea, which facilitates 30% of global trade annually, exacerbating relationships with Southeast Asian neighbors Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand. Despite a 2016 arbitration tribunal in The Hague ruling in favor of the Philippines and against China’s claim to economic rights within the Chinese demarcated “nine-dash line” in the South China Sea, China remains undeterred from continuing to exercise control over the body of water.
Aside from varying sovereignty claims on islands within the South China Sea, even the name of the sea is contested. The Philippine government refers to it as the “West Philippine Sea,” the Vietnamese government calls it the “East Sea,” and calls are emerging to use the name “Southeast Asia Sea.”
What does an increased Chinese military presence mean for the U.S. and allies in the region? The possibility of disrupted shipping lanes and the threat of a monopoly on marine natural resources. Fearful of these possibilities, the ASEAN alliance, an economic and security cooperation comprised of member states Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, has been searching for venues to de-escalate disputes peacefully.
While critics say the alliance lacks a unified vision, member states have begun to push for the alliance to negotiate a South China Sea code of conduct with China. Some Southeast Asian states like the Philippines have security agreements with the United States meaning any aggressive actions by China could quickly evoke a military response by the United States, and other powers like Australia are angling to partner with ASEAN nations.
As this conflict evolves, nations are scrambling to build islands in the sea to expand their radar systems, anti-ship artillery, and rocket systems in an effort to remain militarily prepared should China strike. Behind China, who has built 3,500 acres in man-made islands on shallow reefs, is Vietnam with 2,200 acres. Not only does this escalate tensions in the region, but the dredging required to create the islands causes long-term damage to reefs and degrades the surrounding environment.
Following a recent visit to the Philippines by the U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, $500 million was exempted for the nation from the U.S. foreign aid freeze. Such a sudden reversal on a core administrative position demonstrates the administration’s understanding of how critical foreign aid and military assistance is in deterring Chinese influence. Secretary Hegseth said, “Friends need to stand shoulder-to-shoulder to deter conflict, to ensure that there’s free navigation,” and announced an increase in joint military exercises.
If the United States continues to shy away from asserting itself financially in the region, China could be emboldened into striking first, potentially compromising trade routes beneficial to the U.S. and our allies or may attempt to capture additional islands in a violation of sovereignty against ASEAN nations. The United States has already quietly unfrozen millions for some Pacific allies threatened by China; it should be a more prominent imperative for the United States to uphold the sovereignty of our Southeast Asian partners and allies.